Publication 20-CNA-015

Scheduling fixed length quarantines to minimize the total number of fatalities during an epidemic

Yuanyuan Feng
Department of Mathematics
Pennsylvania State University
State College, PA 16802, USA
yzf58@psu.edu

Gautam Iyer
Department of Mathematical Sciences
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
gautam@math.cmu.edu

Lei Li
School of Mathematical Sciences
Institute of Natural Sciences, MOE-LSC
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Shanghai 200240, P.R. China
leili2010@sjtu.edu.cn

Abstract: We consider a susceptible, infected, removed (SIR) system where the transmission rate may be temporarily reduced for a fixed amount of time. We show that in order to minimize the total number of fatalities, the transmission rate should be reduced on a single contiguous time interval, and we characterize this interval via an integral condition. We conclude with a few numerical simulations showing the actual reduction obtained.

Get the paper in its entirety as  20-CNA-015.pdf

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