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SIAM Chapter Seminar
Glenn Young University of Pittsburgh Title: Modeling Extinction Events with a GaltonWatson Process Abstract: GaltonWatson processes were introduced by Sir Francis Galton and Reverend Henry William Watson in the mid 1870s as a method of investigating the extinction probabilities of family names. In the 1.4 centuries since, mathematicians and others have applied Galton Watson theory to study Ychromosome transmission in genetics, the propagation of cancer cells, and the spread of AIDS, to name a few examples. In this talk, I will formulate and discuss the mathematics behind the classic GaltonWatson model and derive the probability that a surname goes extinct (or equivalently and more happily, survives). I will then present recent results on an application of GaltonWatson theory to the study of disease transmission in a well mixed human population. The first 80% of this talk should be accessible to anyone who has passed calculus I and has seen power series, and the last 20% will rely on some basic differential equations/dynamical systems. Date: Tuesday, February 3, 2015 Time: 5:30 pm Location: Wean Hall 8220 